I have mixed feelings about the iPad. I love my iPhone, Kindle and my HP Netbook but I'm not sure if I have a need for another small computing device. Of course, who couldn't use a huge iPod Touch to have on the coffee table to check email and Facebook statuses. I could see replacing my Kindle with one because I'm sure that it is going to be a better book reader. However, I'm not paying $500 to $700 for a book reader. I waited until the Kindle came down to $250 before I pulled the trigger on that.
I do have a feeling that the iPad will be successful because the mac boys and tech heads will flock to it. It will be the next must have gadget. I also see this device becoming very popular in educational circles. If it gains a lot of traction in these markets then I assume the mass market will eventually follow unless a competitor like HP or Dell can deliver comparable product with a good UI and a lot of marketing.
I just read an interesting article by Steve Gillmor on TechCrunchIT and it made me think about something. If the iPad is successful does that mean the beginning of the end Flash?
Take Flash. Please. When Jobs quarantined it on the iPhone, we all felt it was a tactical thing, more political than technical. Of course, it’s never been technical, even now when it’s kept off the iPad because it is responsible for such a great percentage of crashes in Safari or whatever. Actually, Flash is being kept off the iPlatform because It Sucks. Google’s HTML 5 liturgy is another contiguous example of how to sell the same message, but enquiring minds still want to know why we need a plug-in from a company that makes its real money from Photoshop.
via http://www.techcrunchit.com/2010/01/29/left-out/
As a web developer, I'm not a fan of Flash. I have a lot experience working with it because of my former life as a designer, but now I try to use Javascript and CSS whenever I can to avoid using Flash. Flash is a blotted web browser plugin and is the leading cause for web browser crashes. It is CPU and memory intensive and on low powered devices like netbooks is barely usable.
Flash is still installed on over 98% of the web browsers and I believe the primary reason it retains it's foothold is because of video sites like Youtube and Hulu that are built on on it. Video is Flash's killer feature. Also, there a Flash games like Facebook's Farmville that help to keep it on top. However, more and more mobile devices like smart phones don't have Flash installed and people are starting to get comfortable with the idea of not relying on Flash for their dynamic content. Also, websites are using Javascript for animations that would have required Flash to run in a browser.
The one thing that Javscript can not do is video and that is where HTML5 will come into play. HTML5 allows video to play in a web browser using a video codec like MPEG or H.264 Youtube is already starting to move over to an HTML5 video player and most of their videos are viewable in a beta version of their site.
So back to the iPad. Taking Steve Job's recent statements into consideration about Flash, Adobe, HTML5, Flash will probably never step foot inside of an iPhone or iPad. I bet that if Steve could, he would try to keep it off every Mac. If the iPad becomes a successful web browsing device without Flash, then that could be the final nail in the Flash coffin. It probably won't happen overnight because that 98% install base will take a long time to come down but I think that in 2 to 3 years we will no longer have the need for Flash in the browser.
Like I said, I'm still undecided about whether or not a tablet device like the iPad is right for me, but if it helps to kill off Flash and speed up the adoption of HTML5 then as a web developer, I'm for it.
Just in case you live under a rock and you don't know what the iPad is:
